Coronavirus (COVID-19) is a disease caused by a new strain of the coronaviridae family known as SARS-CoV-2. This microorganism was prior called 2019-nCoV and originally identified amid a respiratory illness epidemic in a Chinese city. The first official report of the disease to the World Health Organization (WHO) was on 31 December 2019. Shortly after the report, WHO declared the outbreak a global pandemic on March 11, 2020, the first designation since the body ruled H1N1 influenza pandemic in 2009.

Since December 2019, the novel virus has spread rapidly from Wuhan to 185 countries, causing over 179 000,000 infection cases. Also, more than three million deaths have been associated with the disease, and these numbers kept growing. The alarming morbidity and mortality rate accompanying the disease has also led to several economic meltdowns and recession. In subsequent sections of this resource, you’ll be exposed to the role of biostatistics and epidemiology in managing this pandemic crisis.

 

Role of epidemiologists and biostatisticians in gathering data and understanding the disease

The complexity and novel nature of the Covid-19 virus came with several challenges. On top of the list is how to gather reliable data about cases and provide a trend in formulating appropriate interventions. To bridge this gap, epidemiologists started with creating a case definition, a common way to define the disease across every continent. As soon as the condition became a global pandemic and relevant authorities reported cases to designated surveillance centers, experts began data collection, analysis, and interpretation. These public health surveys revealed more about the disease than the mere incidence rate. These data also served as a predictive tool in assessing the trend and possible hot zones for disease spread.

The collected data included basic demographic details such as name, age, address, and gender. It also contained details on symptoms, remedies, and reinfection, giving scientists an idea about the course and cause of the disease. After adequate data collection from ministries, hospitals, and other allied agencies, biostatisticians stepped in to analyze and make tangible inferences from the various information. During analysis, biostatisticians employ charts and graphs to visualize the data.

From these data and other strategies employed by epidemiologists to stop the disease’s mortality and morbidity rate, scientists concluded and understood the disease’s transmission routes. An example of such a strategy is the inference from contact tracing. Epidemiologists talk to patients to learn how they spread the disease to different contacts and relatives. Then they used this information to trace the chain of transmission and inferred that the virus is airborne and can be passed on through close personal contact touching a contaminated object or surface.

 

Community health actions on reduction of disease spread

As part of epidemiologic studies and surveys, community health experts have made some recommendations in limiting infection spread and morbidity. A team of epidemiologists and public health scientists carried out a contact tracing study in 2020, which supports some recommendations like hand washing, social distancing, and wearing face masks in public. Since the scientific community agrees largely that the virus is transmitted mainly by contact with contaminated surfaces, handwashing remains arguably the best defense against the spread of the infection. This practice must be done regularly and after touching secretions from a suspected or confirmed patient. More so, hand washing is an effective preventive practice in the transmission of many airborne diseases.

The center for disease control also recommends wearing a face mask in public for those above two years old. The mask should fit over the nose and aid proper breathing. These masks, which are recommended for travelers on buses or planes and even in passenger cars, come in various sizes and types.

And with more understanding of the disease, there have been significant innovations in producing effective masks. Another public health recommendation is to maintain six feet between people with suspected cases or non-household members. Other advice includes avoiding crowded areas, avoiding portly ventilating spaces, thorough washing of food items before consumption, and cleaning all surfaces regularly.

Evaluation of the efficacy of these practices is highly needed as there’s generally a lack of evidence that supports these protective measures against SARS-CoV-2 infection in many places. However, the contact tracing mentioned earlier, which is one of the few ones to date, proved a 77% lower risk of getting the SARS-CoV-2 infection if one wears a face mask all the time, especially during contact. Furthermore, the researchers noted that the study population was also likely to obey other public health recommendations, giving rise to an above-average result. Overall, even though this is one study from a possible many in the nearest future, the experts concluded that these preventive practices could serve as a way of reducing disease spread.

 

Designing clinical trials to test vaccine efficacy and the role of epidemiologists and biostatisticians

With the increasing understanding of the pathogenesis and etiology of the Covid 19 disease, clinical researchers embarked on the production of vaccines. Vaccine development is multifaceted and involves many disciplines like epidemiology, biostatistics, biochemistry, and biology. The journey to producing an effective vaccine like the Oxford University-AstraZeneca vaccine has raised many eyebrows on their safety. However, vaccines go through various testing stages before they are deemed fit for human use.

Human testing, which usually comes after animal trials, is one way of determining the safety of a vaccine. Clinical experts subjected various people to safe doses of this vaccine in three different phases in human trials. The main discerning factor in each stage is the increase in the study population and changes in selection criteria. Finally, epidemiologists collected the results of these trials, and the vaccines were rolled out completely after post-approval surveillance.

However, pharmaceutical companies consider the duration and efficacy of a trial based on statistical decisions. These decisions will help them foresee the gains and outcomes of any clinical study. Biostatisticians play a crucial role in this stage by helping these companies with appropriate trial designs, interim analysis, immune response, subgroup analysis, toxicity monitoring, and group sequential design.

 

Conclusion

Though alarming and difficult to control, most global health crises offer a clear insight into the role of various scientific disciplines. For COVID 19, the role of epidemiologists and biostatisticians has been apparent.

From evaluating incidence rates to the groundbreaking discovery of the determinants of the disease, these professionals helped bridge several gaps. In addition, they have also provided the scientific community and the world with insight into preventive actions, disease course, sequelae, and appropriate management. Thankfully, we also have a vaccine that resulted from various clinical trials with these experts at the forefront of all these discoveries. Truly, it would not have been possible to control the spread of COVID-19 without them.